SUMMARY : Upbeat market in October, led by Japanese equities / ECB asset purchase ‘recalibration’: still accommodative / EM: renewed idiosyncratic risks?
SUMMARY Market summary: equitier climb higher in low-vol environment Crude market outlook - the new oïl era Asset allocation: long EM versus DM
SUMMARY • Risk assets: under the weather • Upbeat global growth • Asset allocation: back to underweight duration, still bearish on euro versus US dollar
SUMMARY • Inflation continues to disappoint • Are central banks debating a change in their reaction functions? • Bond markets are becoming unsettled
SUMMARY • Inflation disappoints, but central banks carry on • Is growth becoming more domestic? • Now closed: underweight in developed equities • Overweight real estate rotated from Europe to US
Our outlook for US inflation and growth has brightened considerably since the start of 2018, so we have lifted our targets for both US Treasury yields and TIPS-based breakeven inflation rates. Here, we review the factors we see as contributing to the rise in US inflation and we look at the potential monetary policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Flash note on the sell-off and implications for equity allocations
Why is volatility so low?
Equities to benefit from growth, still-low interest rates
US and eurozone PMIs underscore growth prospects; UK odd one out
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