Asset Allocation Quarterly
Central banks induce regime shifts
Asset Allocation Quarterly
So far so good, but markets underestimate risks
Asset allocation – September 2018
SUMMARY: US equities continued to outperform other markets such as EMU and EM equities. This partly reflects the divergence between the US economy -which is supported by fiscal expansion and a patient Federal Reserve- and relatively weaker growth in the eurozone and EM. But there is more to this divergence than faster US economic growth. The US equity rally has been led by the IT sector. This has accounted for 20%-50% of US equity returns since 2016. The rally is now looking stretched on various metrics. The other salient development in August was renewed stress in emerging markets (EM). A combination of economic stress in Turkey, weaker growth in China, Sino-US trade tensions and a stronger US dollar hurt EM assets. We believe there is value in EM assets, but the obvious circuit-breakers are still absent: a weaker USD, aggressive China stimulus and fresh Sino-US trade talks. EM assets prospects have soured and protectionism and tighter liquidity continue to cloud their longer-term prospects.
Asset allocation quarterly – July 2018
Foreseeing calmer markets over the next few months, we have identified several reversal themes
Asset allocation flash – 25 June 2018
SUMMARY: Despite trade tensions, concerns about global growth and more volatile markets than in 2017, our base case scenario remains one of robust global growth and contained inflation. This underpins our bullish view on equities, with a preference for eurozone equities where we see positive earnings growth prospects and room for margin expansion
US inflation on a rising trend
Our outlook for US inflation and growth has brightened considerably since the start of 2018, so we have lifted our targets for both US Treasury yields and TIPS-based breakeven inflation rates. Here, we review the factors we see as contributing to the rise in US inflation and we look at the potential monetary policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Chronicle of an equity market correction foretold
Flash note on the sell-off and implications for equity allocations
The tide is still rising in global stock markets
Why is volatility so low?
Central bankers to go easy on any upsets
Equities to benefit from growth, still-low interest rates
‘Goldilocks’ economic conditions continue to sustain risky assets
US and eurozone PMIs underscore growth prospects; UK odd one out
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