BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT - Finance 1 1440x300
Analyse de l'allocation d'actifs, Investment strategy

Asset allocation – September 2018

September 10, 2018 - Guillermo Felices, Head of Research and Strategy & Colin Harte, Head of Research - MAQS

SUMMARY: US equities continued to outperform other markets such as EMU and EM equities. This partly reflects the divergence between the US economy -which is supported by fiscal expansion and a patient Federal Reserve- and relatively weaker growth in the eurozone and EM. But there is more to this divergence than faster US economic growth. The US equity rally has been led by the IT sector. This has accounted for 20%-50% of US equity returns since 2016. The rally is now looking stretched on various metrics. The other salient development in August was renewed stress in emerging markets (EM). A combination of economic stress in Turkey, weaker growth in China, Sino-US trade tensions and a stronger US dollar hurt EM assets. We believe there is value in EM assets, but the obvious circuit-breakers are still absent: a weaker USD, aggressive China stimulus and fresh Sino-US trade talks. EM assets prospects have soured and protectionism and tighter liquidity continue to cloud their longer-term prospects.

The main market moves in August have mirrored some of the keytrends since the beginning of the year: the US equity market hascontinued to outperform major markets such as that of the eurozone and the emerging markets (Figure 1).
Read our latest asset allocation update here
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